As per a report published by the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis, in the last five years, the per capita income of American workers employed in Agriculture and allied services has increased by 10 percent while that of American workers employed in other sectors has increased by 20 percent. Therefore, American workers employed in other sectors now earn a higher per capita income than those employed in Agriculture and allied services.
The argument's reasoning is questionable because the argument fails to rule out the possibility that
Select an option, then click Submit answer.
Reference / correct answer:
five years ago, the per capita income of American workers employed in other sectors was significantly less than that of American workers employed in Agriculture and allied services
Argument construction
A report (published by the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis) talks about two kinds of American workers:
Those employed in Agriculture and allied services – let's call this Group A, and
Those employed in Other Sectors – let this be Group B
As per the report, in the last five years, the per capita income of:
Group A has increased by 10%
Group B has increased by 20%
From the above premises, the following conclusion is drawn: (Per Capita Income of Group B today) > (Per Capita Income of Group A today)
Flaw in the argument
Let's dissect the argument. Let's assume that 5 years ago, the per capita income of
Group A was A0
Group B was B0
Then, as per the report findings, the per capita income today of
Group A is A1 = A0 + 10% of A0 = 1.1A0

Group B is B1 = B0 + 20% of B0 = 1.2B0
The Conclusion
B1 > A1; That is, 1.2B0 > 1.1A0
We know from the question statement that this conclusion is flawed. What is the flaw in it?
In the above inequality, 1.2 is certainly greater than 1.1. However, can we be sure that B0 is greater than A0? Does the argument give us any basis to assume this? The answer to both questions is 'No.'
What if B0 were significantly smaller than A0? Say, B0 was 40,000 dollars while A0 was 60,000 dollars? Then:
B1 = 1.2B0 = 1.2 × 40,000 = 48,000 dollars
A1 = 1.1A0 = 1.1 × 60,000 = 66,000 dollars
In such a case, the conclusion drawn by the argument (B1 > A1) is proved wrong.
Therefore, the flaw in the argument is that it fails to consider the cases where B0 < A0.
Let's analyze each option one by one.
Answer choices explanation
[five years ago, fewer American workers were employed in other sectors than in Agriculture and allied services] This is incorrect. Since the comparison is between the per capita incomes of the two sectors, the number of workers in either sector is not relevant.

The value of per capita income therefore already takes into account the 'number of workers.' Had the 'total income' of the two sectors been mentioned in the argument along with their per capita incomes, then the 'number of workers' might have been a factor.
[five years ago, the per capita income of American workers employed in other sectors was significantly less…] This is correct. As per this option, the flaw in the argument is that it fails to rule out the possibility that B0 < A0. This is in-line with the discussion done in the 'Argument construction' section.
[over the last five years, the number of American workers employed in other sectors has decreased] This is incorrect. One of the ways in which the per capita income of other sectors could have increased is with decreasing number of workers; there is no reason to rule out the possibility that the increase in the per capita income happened due to this reason. Therefore, failing to rule it out does not make the reasoning questionable.
[over the last five years, many American workers who were previously employed in Agriculture and allied services shifted to other sectors] This is incorrect. Since the per capita income depends on the number of workers, the changing numbers of Groups A and B, as suggested in this option, would have impacted the respective per capita incomes of both the groups. However, this does not affect the argument at all since neither the premises nor the conclusion concern themselves with 'how or why' the per capita income of each group changed. Therefore, failing to rule out the possibility that the change in per capita income happened due to the reason suggested in this option is no error in reasoning.
[the total national income generated by Agriculture and allied services now is still greater than that generated by other sectors] This is incorrect. If the total national income generated by Agriculture and allied services was greater than that generated by other sectors five years ago and remains greater now, but the number of workers employed in Agriculture and allied services is far greater than those in other sectors, then the conclusion
B > A is still possible. (For an example with easy numbers, consider
Therefore, failing to rule out the possibility of this option does not prove the conclusion wrong.